House of Cards

Sadly this isn't a review of the much-acclaimed serialisation of Michael Dobbs' magnum opus. However it does bear some relevance on the current goings-on in the Westminster village, for finally we get a big reshuffle. It's been two years in coming, but hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll have a Cabinet hopefully more refreshed and energetic in tackling the challenges ahead. 

Here, then, I hope to give a personal account of those involved and whether or not I believe they would be best suited to the job they've been tipped for. I shall start with: 

The Great Offices of State: these being the PM, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary. Obviously we cannot afford to lose George Osborne at the Treasury, but he really must get a grip on the economy. It has started to run away with him and he must now reveal a more bold and robust growth plan in order to get Britain going again. Build a runway by all means, but do it at a regional airport for God's sake. Birmingham would be perfect for this; central location, good access to all parts of England and Wales as well as onward travel by air and rail to Scotland and of course as one of the termini for High Speed 2. 

Foreign Secretary: William Hague has been stellar these past two years. British foreign policy has never been in better shape with him at the helm and we are being listened to again. No more gaffes, mistaken handshakes or anything like that. He's been right on the money, such a shame he won't move and take on the chairmanship role. He would add the political clout needed while being popular and well-known to help galvanise our tired association network. He might have paved the way for...

Home Secretary: Theresa May. She's had a bad innings at the Home Office one way or another, although not too much of her own making. Scandals with UKBA and G4S, the Police Federation conference to name but three. She has the tenacity to turn that round and the intelligence to provide innovative policy. She has, however, grown into her role nicely and could probably survive another year. 

Health Secretary: Andrew Lansley may or may not be for the chop. I hope he stays, it was just horrible how the NHS reforms were presented. Trusting GP's with money is not a good idea, but ensuring more competition within the Health Service is. Letting him go now looks like admitting defeat and that cannot happen. That is not to ignore his long record on Conservative health policy, but some people do need a gentle push. We shall see. 

Justice Secretary: Speaking of gentle pushes, Ken Clarke could well find himself gently pushed out and upstairs. Might not be such a bad thing, he's had forty years in and out of governments one way or another. The apparent softness on crime and blatant Europhilia do count against him, he's much better at economics. Had we been in a better position, he could easily have gone to the Treasury as Chief Secretary. His future is very uncertain; I won't be sorry to see him go. A peerage and position at CCHQ might be just the retirement he needs. 

Work and Pensions/Education: I mention these two in the same breath because there is no point in moving either Ian Duncan Smith or Michael Gove. There are those who say that their policies are socially harmful and not the least bit beneficial to those who would use their services most. I forgot that it's wrong to empower people, to show them how they can live their lives without full dependence on the State for everything. If you are capable of work, then you ought to work. If you desire a good education for your child, then your child must have it. Gove has wrested the schools away from the devastatingly toxic grip of the local authorities and allowed dedicated people to help set up free schools. In the same way, IDS is attempting to show people that in fact it is much better to stand on your own two feet and run your life yourself. 

Business and Innovation: Sadly Vince isn't moving either. However he has just put forward proposals for a new investment bank, so he ought to see the project through its initial stages before he's shunted anywhere. Hopefully he might learn a few lessons and actually read the very helpful reports he's given before carrying on regardless. 

Transport: Justine Greening also hangs in the balance, after only a few months in the job thanks to the minor reshuffle caused by Philip Hammond's promotion after Liam Fox's departure. However after her brave intervention over the third runway at Heathrow, she might actually be kept on a little longer. 

Who, then, might be in line for a promotion? Well, firstly, some of the new boys and girls from the 2010 intake are set for higher office in the junior ministries, setting them up for possible promotion a little further down the line. Both Chris Grayling and Grant Shapps are in line to take on more heavyweight roles, with either one of them tipped to be Party Chairman (I have mentioned how awful the Feldman-Warsi-Osborne triad is and would welcome its eventual demise). Owen Paterson could leave the Northern Ireland brief to take on Transport and Patrick Mcloughlin is widely believed to be our next Chief Whip. 

What is needed is a deeper understanding of the voting public. Leave the south-east as it is; it's Tory heartland and nobody will change that any time soon. We need to start winning in other areas, such as the Midlands, the North and Wales. Apart from everyone's chief political concern, which seems to the economy, where are the frequent polls on immigration or crime? I doubt that having an exclusive northerner at CCHQ would make any difference, but it would be a help certainly in rallying the northern associations. Eric Pickles might be good at that, though; leave his job at Communities for someone else while he sets about putting the party on an election footing. We are staring down the barrel at 2013 now and Conference is fast approaching. This is the time when the Chancellor must be bold and deliver on his promise earlier today of increased investment, when the Prime Minister must face down his critics and get tougher on Nick Clegg (bringing David Laws back might just help in that regard, but we shall see) and when the Conservative Party has the leadership it needs to put a majority government in Westminster come 2015.