We all knew it was coming. The clouds had gathered since the European elections; the only question was when the storm would make landfall. We even had a good idea (or so we thought) of the casualties. Nothing, however, could have prepared many of us outside the Westminster bubble for what transpired yesterday and today. I have often believed that a return to Macmillan would not be an entirely bad thing for the party, but even I was slightly astounded as to how near I came to getting my wish. I will expand.
Last time round, I predicted Ken Clarke would be an early scalp in the reshuffle and thought he'd be out of government for good. He was only halfway out, but yesterday was given the final heave-ho from the Ministry without Portfolio. A former minister with a parliamentary career spanning back for the large part of many of his former colleagues' lifetimes, I would not be surprised if he finally left Parliament after being in it for over four decades.
The big surprise, although it probably shouldn't have been on reflection, was the departure of William Hague from the Foreign Office. An absolute tragedy and waste, particularly given that he is also to leave Parliament next year. The dismay on my social media feed was palpable and he is certainly deserving of all plaudits and praise paid him. Such a fabulously intricate brain and grand oratorical skill, he has kept Labour deputy leaders on their toes for nearly a decade. As I say it was rumoured he could leave Parliament and go at the next election and certainly now can make himself a very lucrative future on the after-dinner circuit. However we ought to be thankful that he is to remain on the Treasury bench as Leader of the House and therefore within decent proximity to the Prime Minister.
Another shock was the departure of Michael Gove from Education. He has done sterling work there in driving through the education reforms desperately needed in this country. His departure was met with spiteful cheers by many left-wing friends and acquaintances of mine. He needed to be brutal and forceful in shaking up the system in which so many vested interests had entrenched themselves. Thankfully his forceful nature will still be felt as Chief Whip (props to Sir George Young by the way). He is also a foremost Tory intellectual and his tenure as Chief Whip will be invaluable next year as a government is formed (we hope consisting of a single party). It is also hoped he will, along with Hague, help shape the campaign.
I don't know much about the switching round of the Law Officers, sadly; all I know is Dominic Grieve is out and replaced by Jeremy Wright. However it is not that sort of tinkering which interests me much, I shall now throw open the floodgates and switch on the lights for the main theme.
Replacing William Hague is the grey non-entity of Philip Hammond, formerly Secretary for Defence and Secretary for Transport. Hammond came to Defence after the controversial departure of Liam Fox, who was not chosen for office this time. Liam Fox was at one time a Shadow Foreign Secretary under Michael Howard and would have been my first choice to succeed Hague. A silver lining in Hammond's appointment is that he is at least a Eurosceptic, which will please many on the Tory Right. He will hopefully find himself shuffled out again next year.
Hammond is replaced by Michael Fallon, a former minister at the Department for Energy. Hopefully he'll have a better idea about how to do things and will doubtless be glad to be in charge of his own department away from Ed Davey.
Coming up to the big table to replace Gove at Education is Nicky Morgan, a former Treasury minister. She is among the first of the high-profile women elected since 2010 to be promoted to Cabinet. Many are predicting that she will at least be more conciliatory in her tone when dealing with teaching unions and local authorities, but nonetheless I certainly hope that she will not have lost sight of the central theme of Gove's aims during his time at Education.
Morgan's promotion to Education I found slightly odd, considering the new Environment Secretary, Liz Truss, was a junior minister in Morgan's new department. Truss replaced Owen Paterson, who has now left government, but hopefully not Parliament. I must also pay tribute to Owen, whom I had the privilege of hearing speak once and who made a lot of sense on taxation and spending. Sadly it was his performance during this year's floods which let down an otherwise steady ministerial career, but certainly I believed he had one more department in him.
Nicky Morgan and Liz Truss are two of eleven women promoted today. I mustn't forget to mention a former Keele girl; Priti Patel who heads to the Treasury as Exchequer Secretary. Another is Penny Mordaunt, she of Splash! fame. She heads to the Department of Local Government in a junior ministerial position and has been tipped in the past for great things, we must therefore wonder what next year will hold for her.
Two aspects have overshadowed today's reshuffle. The first is obvious; George Osborne, our esteemed Chancellor, has doubtless had a hand in many of the promotions and sideways moves today. Much has been made in recent weeks of his interest in the Foreign Office next time round, leading many to confirm that he will indeed seek to launch a leadership bid before 2020. Wedded to his proximity to the Prime Minister, thereby enabling him to nudge his favourites (Sajid Javid for one) into position, the writing on the wall grows ever-clearer.
The second, no less obvious, is that Cameron has been routinely attacked for having too few women in Cabinet or in ministerial positions. The promotion and shuffling of a further eleven may very well look like tokenism and I cannot help but wonder if it all comes as too little too late. A perfect reshuffle opportunity presented itself when Maria Miller was sent packing, even if it was just a small one. I do not wish to imply that any of the ladies promoted today are undeserving or are the unwitting pawns in some equality game we have with the Opposition (we'll always lose, they won't be happy with today's choices). I firmly believe that the Conservative Party does not pander to tokenism a la all-women short-lists (given short shrift when Harriet Halfwit's husband was chosen from one). We have always promoted, selected and praised based on merit and merit alone and that should be enough.
This Cabinet has been dubbed a campaign Cabinet and indeed that will prove to be the case; two of its finest sent to help Grant Shapps prepare the ground for the upcoming battles we face not just with the Labour Party, but with those whom we largely once considered our own. Giving Gove and Hague the time and space they need to do that was a wise move and again one detects the hand of Osborne. We must not forget that he was also a de facto Party Chairman until two years ago. It will doubtless be all change again in 2015 and sadly the Treasury will never have Hague, whom I believed to be an excellent replacement for Osborne (though it could easily go to Gove or May). They now have the task of seeing out the next nine and a half months before shuffling round again.
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